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population

The number of people on earth has grown right through human history, but the rate of growth was particularly high during the 20th century. Right back in 10,000BC there were just one million people. This became 5 million by 5000BC, 200 million by AD 0, 500m in 1500 AD and it reached the billion mark in 1804 AD.The next billion was added just over a hundred years later (1927), then there were 5 billion by 1987 and 6 billion by 1999.There are now 6.7 billion people on earth.Current predictions are suggesting about 9 billion by 2050.

This population growth is not evenly distributed. Many of what we call the most developed countries have stabilised their population, while developing countries like Africa are producing more than 5 children per woman. This reflects itself also in the age distribution within a country. The ‘developed’ countries tend to have similar numbers of people in each age range, while developing countries have vastly more young people than older people.

One way that researchers have understood this is to say that developed countries have passed through a demographic transition which can be described by a falling death rate, through health and hygiene, followed later by a falling birth rate as incentives for large families diminish. Some say the move to urban living has been important in providing incentives for smaller family size.

The population of the earth has been a ‘taboo’ subject,but it is now working its way to the top of the agenda. The dislike in considering it comes from a history of arrogance, of forced manipulations of population,where all too often particular groups or races have been singled out for ‘treatment’, or simply by the very crude and oppressive policies that have been pursued as a means of population control.more on this Others like the Optimum Population Trust argue that we simply must address this issue for environmental reasons.

With 6.7 billion people on earth, some are asking whether we are in danger of exceeding Earth’s carrying capacity. But what does this mean? if we think in terms of our ability to feed people, then yields of major crops grew dramatically across the world (250%) from 1950 to 1980 through technological advance in producing high yield varaints of staple crops and the use of fossil fuels in irrigation and fertiliser. This ‘Green Revolution’ as it was called in the US, who championed it, is credited with allowing the doubling of the population through this period without mass starvation intervening.

Critics of the Green Revolution say that it forced strange crops onto soil to which they were not suited, that in turn demanded excessive treatments with fertiliser and pesticides and displaced indigenous and naturally robust crops in the process. It also created a massive oil dependency which in these days of Peak Oil, could lead so easily to mass starvation.

Population is also linked to a host of other issues like climate change, mass extinctions of other creatures and environmental destruction, but the relationships with these things are complex. While simplistically one might think that more people might mean more carbon emissions, for example, this is not straightforward because the carbon footprint of people in rich countries may be ten times that of a person in a poor country.Simlarly the consumptive habits of the developed countries may be driving at least as much environmental destruction as the poor who are eking out a living.

The complexity and the dangers of this subject give it a strong spiritual and moral dimension. We need to ask deep questions about what makes people want big families. Is it security? Is this financial security or protection against enemies? Or is it something to do with status in the eyes of others? What is the effect of male/female power dynamics on this? What is the impact of education, health and pension provision? Then we must ask which of these is it appropriate to try to address?